In the first half of the year, the tire sales situation was not good, but with the recovery of the American market and the slow growth of the European market, the Chinese government actually underpinned the market, so the tire market situation improved from the second half of the year. This is the information obtained by the reporter at the National Conference on the operation of tire industry and related industries held by the tire branch of China Rubber Industry Association on November 12. Insiders are cautiously optimistic about the trend of the tire market this year, but they also believe that the fierce market competition will further intensify. In this situation, tire enterprises must transform and upgrade, innovate operation mode and mode of thinking in order to win the market and achieve sustainable and healthy development.

Increased output, lower prices and narrower benefits

Cai Weimin, Secretary General of tire branch, introduced that according to the statistics of 47 major tire enterprises, from January to September, the tire output was 271 million, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year (the same below), including 242 million radial tires, an increase of 9.95%; The sales revenue was 152.108 billion yuan, down 1.55%; The export delivery value was 54.370 billion yuan, down 1.48%; By the end of September, the inventory value of finished products was 14.871 billion yuan, down 2.31%. The profits of 45 tire enterprises reached 6.721 billion yuan, an increase of 30.58%, down 5.8 percentage points; Profits and taxes reached 10.536 billion yuan, an increase of 29.41%, down 5.2 percentage points; The sales profit margin is 4.95%; There were 7 loss making enterprises, with a loss of 15.6%, down 1.1 percentage points.

According to the survey of tire branch, since this year, the market price of all steel tire has mainly decreased. Among them, the tire prices of six large domestic enterprises have increased and decreased, mainly by decreasing, with an average decrease of 2% ~ 4%; The average selling price of tires of 11 small and medium-sized enterprises in a province was reduced by 5% ~ 7%; Some of the five foreign-funded enterprises cancelled promotional activities, and some appropriately raised the price of certain specifications of tires, but the price of specifications that are difficult to sell fell by about 2%. The overall sales volume of semi steel tire market has increased steadily. Among them, foreign brands account for the mainstream of the supporting market, with prices rising and falling; Tires with better brands of domestic enterprises account for a certain share in the replacement tire market, and the prices rise and fall, mainly down; Semi steel tire enterprises that lack brands adopt promotion means, focusing on running volume, and the price decreases greatly.

Zhang Wanyou, general manager of shuangqian Group Co., Ltd., said that from January to September, the output growth rate of China's tire industry was better than that of last year, the product structure was further optimized, and the proportion of radial tires was increased to 89.03%. The output growth rate of semi steel tires exceeded that of all steel tires, which matched the growth situation of production and sales of domestic passenger cars and commercial vehicles; The production of bias tyres further shrank. Due to the continuous decline in the price of natural rubber in the first half of the year, the profits of tire enterprises are generally better than last year. However, due to market pressure, tire enterprises have reduced product sales prices several times, and the sales revenue has decreased. From the average unit price of comprehensive tire casing, the decline in sales revenue in August and September is more obvious. Nevertheless, the market's expectation of price decline of tire products is still strong. Due to the reduction of product prices and the rebound of rubber prices in the third quarter, the profit space of the enterprise is gradually reduced.

Overcapacity and intensified competition

Ge Guorong, deputy general manager of Zhongce Rubber Group Co., Ltd., believes that in fact, the demand for tires has never been worse. Whether in China or the world, the demand for tires has been growing. In particular, the growth of China's automobile industry this year exceeded expectations, but everyone still feels that tires are difficult to sell. This is due to oversupply, and there are too many tire projects.

Deng Yali, President of China Rubber Industry Association, gave a set of data. By the end of last year, there were 537 tire enterprises above Designated Size in China, but by August this year, this number had changed to 560, with an average of 2.8 tire enterprises above Designated Size born every month. Since this year, a new round of investment in the tire industry is rising again. According to rough statistics, the production capacity of all steel tires will be increased by 20 million and the production capacity of semi steel tires will be more than 100 million.

Ge Guorong believes that the pressure of car tires in the tire market this year will be much greater than that of all steel tires, because there are too many new production capacity of car tires, and there is still a certain market for all steel tires due to the imbalance in the global market. "Many enterprises think they will win in the fierce competition, but the fact is far from simple. If the old enterprises press the price, the new enterprises will have no living space." He believes that the market will force enterprises on the right track. "It is true that some enterprises have the behavior of tax evasion, and some dealers have been checked, so tire enterprises and dealers still have to abide by the law." Ge Guorong said.

Wang Feng, chairman of the tire branch and chairman of Fengshen Tire Co., Ltd., believes that the blind investment of China's tire enterprises has led to low-level redundant construction, overcapacity, especially for low-end products, serious phenomenon of "many, small, scattered and disorderly", low industrial concentration and low resource utilization. "The overall brand image of China tire Corps is at the low end, lacking international brands with global influence; the ability of technological innovation is weak, the technical content is low, the quality is lack of stable uniformity, the product homogenization is serious, the product price is low, the added value is low, and it is at the middle and low end of the value chain dominated by manufacturing links. For a long time, it has earned meager profits by low prices." He said that Chinese tire enterprises have traveled across the sea and sold about 42% of their tires to foreign countries, of which about 70% of car tires are exported overseas. The price is at least 20% lower than that of foreign enterprises, and they often encounter various technical and trade barriers. There is an urgent need to regulate the market.

Deng Yali pointed out that from the data, the tire production capacity has increased, but the price has decreased. On the one hand, thanks to the decline in material prices, tire enterprises have also reduced costs in management; But on the other hand, the industry is subject to disorderly competition, and the profits are constantly eroded. "Why do so many people want to enter the tire industry? They think the tire is still profitable, but the profit is piled up with small profits and quick turnover." She believes that the hot investment in the tire industry is also related to the concept of political achievements of local governments, which has promoted many projects. She hopes that the state will reform the assessment methods for local governments.

Ge Guorong also believes that Chinese enterprises hope to develop greatly and have to build new projects and expand their scale, which will inevitably lead to a waste of resources. Tire enterprises should expand through integration. He said that the development trend of the industry is that enterprises without characteristics cannot live, and it will be more and more difficult to make money in the future, because the rubber price has reached the bottom. Once it falls too far, it will rise. When the rubber price goes up, everyone will feel more pressure.

The market is cautiously optimistic this year

It is understood that since 2013, China's automobile market has generally shown a trend of booming production and sales, with significant growth in the production and sales of passenger cars and a rebound in the production and sales growth of commercial vehicles. According to the statistics of China Automobile Industry Association, from January to October, automobile production and sales increased by 13.58% and 13.47% respectively, with an increase of 9.02 and 9.91 percentage points respectively, which is significantly better than the previous two years. It is expected that the growth rate of automobile production and sales will also remain above 10% this year. It is expected that China's automobile industry will still grow at the rate of 8% ~ 12% in 2014, which will last for a long time. From January to September, the National Highway freight volume and cargo turnover increased by 11.1% and 12.6% respectively. Although the growth rate fell by 2.9 and 3.4 percentage points respectively, after stabilizing and recovering in June, July and August, the recovery momentum in September was further consolidated; The freight volume has maintained a rapid growth of more than 10% for four consecutive months. In the third quarter, China's import and export generally showed a low and stable trend. It is expected that the export should show a steady development trend in the next two or three months. China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rebounded for four consecutive months.

Zhang Wanyou believes that China's tire production is expected to maintain growth in the next few months, but revenue will decline and profit growth will decrease. Ge Guorong also introduced that he had just traveled to 15 states in the United States and felt that the U.S. market had really recovered and the overall economy was improving. However, if China's tire exports are disorderly, it will still face the huge risk of trade friction. "For example, Zhongce sells 160 million to 170 million yuan in the Brazilian and Indian markets at the best time, but it will lose a lot in the event of anti-dumping." They are cautiously optimistic about the market later this year, but they also believe that the competition in the future will be more intense.

The China Rubber Association predicted at the beginning of this year that the national tire output will reach 490 million this year, an increase of 4%; Among them, the output of radial tires was 435 million, an increase of 5%. From the completion from January to September, the output this year may exceed the expected target. It is estimated that China's tire production in 2014 will be about 510 million, an increase of 4.1%; Among them, the output of radial tires was 457 million, an increase of 5.1%, and the radial rate reached 90%.

————China rubber trade network